iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) — The Transparent Read
49/100Neutral$85.52 · mixed
The chart reads mixed. Composite score lands at 49/100 — neutral. History agrees about 55% of the time in falling inflation + steady fed regimes like today. Treat this as a read, not a guarantee.
TLT key levels
Show Your Work — every point in TLT's score
The score starts at 50, then each signal below adds or subtracts points. No black box.
| Signal | Type | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Below 200-day MA Price is below its 200-day average — long-term trend is down. | technical | -8 |
| Above 50-day MA Trading above the 50-day average — medium-term momentum is positive. | technical | +5 |
| Death cross 50-day average is below the 200-day (death cross). | technical | -4 |
| RSI neutral RSI is 48 — neither overbought nor oversold. | technical | -0.16 |
| MACD positive MACD is above its signal line — momentum is building. | technical | +5 |
| Near support Holding near support around $84.31. | technical | +4 |
| Near resistance Pressing against resistance around $87.46. | technical | -4 |
| Macro regime base rate In 33 past periods like today (Falling inflation + Steady Fed), this stock was higher 90d later 55% of the time (median +0.8%). Historically favorable. | macro | +0.91 |
Macro regime base rate
Today's regime: Falling inflation + Steady Fed
In 33 past periods that looked like today, TLT was higher 90 days later 55% of the time (median move 0.9%). Confidence: high.
The read
TLT: Neutral (49/100)
Bull case. Trading above the 50-day average — medium-term momentum is positive. MACD is above its signal line — momentum is building.
Bear case. Price is below its 200-day average — long-term trend is down. 50-day average is below the 200-day (death cross).
What would change my mind. A decisive close below $84.31 flips the near-term read bearish; a break above $87.46 would confirm the bullish case.
TLT — frequently asked
Is TLT a buy according to Tallyread?
Tallyread does not give buy or sell recommendations. It shows a transparent 49/100 read for iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), conditioned on today's macro regime, with every scoring input itemized so you can judge for yourself. This is not financial advice.
How is TLT's Tallyread score calculated?
The 49/100 score starts at 50, then adds and subtracts named technical and macro signals — each shown with its point value and a one-line reason in the "Show Your Work" table on this page. Nothing is hidden in a black box.
How does today's Fed-and-inflation regime affect TLT?
In 33 past periods whose macro regime matched today's (Falling inflation + Steady Fed), TLT was higher 90 days later 55% of the time, with a median move of 0.9%. Confidence: high.
Want a fresh read on TLT with the live chart and macro tape?
Run a live TLT read →Last analyzed 2026-07-02 · Data source: tiingo. See the public scorecard and methodology.
This is a historical and technical read for informational and educational purposes only — not financial advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell TLT. Markets are uncertain; do your own research.