Super Micro Computer (SMCI) — The Transparent Read
27/100Bearish$27.65 · downtrend
The chart reads downtrend. Composite score lands at 27/100 — bearish. History agrees about 30% of the time in falling inflation + steady fed regimes like today. Treat this as a read, not a guarantee.
SMCI key levels
Show Your Work — every point in SMCI's score
The score starts at 50, then each signal below adds or subtracts points. No black box.
| Signal | Type | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Below 200-day MA Price is below its 200-day average — long-term trend is down. | technical | -8 |
| Below 50-day MA Trading below the 50-day average — medium-term momentum is weak. | technical | -5 |
| Death cross 50-day average is below the 200-day (death cross). | technical | -4 |
| RSI neutral RSI is 40 — neither overbought nor oversold. | technical | -0.96 |
| MACD negative MACD is below its signal line — momentum is fading. | technical | -5 |
| Near support Holding near support around $27.48. | technical | +4 |
| Macro regime base rate In 33 past periods like today (Falling inflation + Steady Fed), this stock was higher 90d later 30% of the time (median -9.4%). Historically unfavorable. | macro | -3.94 |
Macro regime base rate
Today's regime: Falling inflation + Steady Fed
In 33 past periods that looked like today, SMCI was higher 90 days later 30% of the time (median move -9.4%). Confidence: high.
The read
SMCI: Bearish (27/100)
Bull case. Holding near support around $27.48.
Bear case. Price is below its 200-day average — long-term trend is down. Trading below the 50-day average — medium-term momentum is weak.
What would change my mind. A decisive close below $27.48 flips the near-term read bearish; a break above $50.02 would confirm the bullish case.
SMCI — frequently asked
Is SMCI a buy according to Tallyread?
Tallyread does not give buy or sell recommendations. It shows a transparent 27/100 read for Super Micro Computer (SMCI), conditioned on today's macro regime, with every scoring input itemized so you can judge for yourself. This is not financial advice.
How is SMCI's Tallyread score calculated?
The 27/100 score starts at 50, then adds and subtracts named technical and macro signals — each shown with its point value and a one-line reason in the "Show Your Work" table on this page. Nothing is hidden in a black box.
How does today's Fed-and-inflation regime affect SMCI?
In 33 past periods whose macro regime matched today's (Falling inflation + Steady Fed), SMCI was higher 90 days later 30% of the time, with a median move of -9.4%. Confidence: high.
Want a fresh read on SMCI with the live chart and macro tape?
Run a live SMCI read →Last analyzed 2026-07-01 · Data source: tiingo. See the public scorecard and methodology.
This is a historical and technical read for informational and educational purposes only — not financial advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell SMCI. Markets are uncertain; do your own research.