United Parcel Service (UPS) — The Transparent Read
59/100Cautiously Bullish$109.54 · uptrend
The chart reads uptrend. Composite score lands at 58/100 — cautiously bullish. History agrees about 48% of the time in falling inflation + steady fed regimes like today. Treat this as a read, not a guarantee.
UPS key levels
Show Your Work — every point in UPS's score
The score starts at 50, then each signal below adds or subtracts points. No black box.
| Signal | Type | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Above 200-day MA Price is above its 200-day average — long-term trend is up. | technical | +8 |
| Above 50-day MA Trading above the 50-day average — medium-term momentum is positive. | technical | +5 |
| Golden cross 50-day average is above the 200-day (golden cross). | technical | +4 |
| RSI neutral RSI is 58 — neither overbought nor oversold. | technical | +0.78 |
| MACD negative MACD is below its signal line — momentum is fading. | technical | -5 |
| Near resistance Pressing against resistance around $111.22. | technical | -4 |
| Macro regime base rate In 33 past periods like today (Falling inflation + Steady Fed), this stock was higher 90d later 48% of the time (median -0.9%). Historically unfavorable. | macro | -0.30 |
Macro regime base rate
Today's regime: Falling inflation + Steady Fed
In 33 past periods that looked like today, UPS was higher 90 days later 49% of the time (median move -0.9%). Confidence: high.
The read
UPS: Cautiously Bullish (58/100)
Bull case. Price is above its 200-day average — long-term trend is up. Trading above the 50-day average — medium-term momentum is positive.
Bear case. MACD is below its signal line — momentum is fading. Pressing against resistance around $111.22.
What would change my mind. A decisive close below $102.83 flips the near-term read bearish; a break above $111.22 would confirm the bullish case.
UPS — frequently asked
Is UPS a buy according to Tallyread?
Tallyread does not give buy or sell recommendations. It shows a transparent 59/100 read for United Parcel Service (UPS), conditioned on today's macro regime, with every scoring input itemized so you can judge for yourself. This is not financial advice.
How is UPS's Tallyread score calculated?
The 59/100 score starts at 50, then adds and subtracts named technical and macro signals — each shown with its point value and a one-line reason in the "Show Your Work" table on this page. Nothing is hidden in a black box.
How does today's Fed-and-inflation regime affect UPS?
In 33 past periods whose macro regime matched today's (Falling inflation + Steady Fed), UPS was higher 90 days later 49% of the time, with a median move of -0.9%. Confidence: high.
Want a fresh read on UPS with the live chart and macro tape?
Run a live UPS read →Last analyzed 2026-07-01 · Data source: tiingo. See the public scorecard and methodology.
This is a historical and technical read for informational and educational purposes only — not financial advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell UPS. Markets are uncertain; do your own research.