RTX (RTX) — The Transparent Read
70/100Bullish$187.33 · mixed
This is a constructive, modestly bullish setup. The weight of evidence — price above both key MAs, positive MACD, a 70.4 composite, and a strong historical base rate — leans higher over the next quarter. The death cross is the one wart, but with price already reclaiming both averages, it looks more like a fading lagging signal than a fresh warning. I'd lean long-biased toward the $194.17 resistance, with the 79% historical win rate and +4.3% median move providing the statistical tailwind. Just respect that 'mixed' label — this is a grind-higher thesis, not a breakout fireworks show.
RTX key levels
Show Your Work — every point in RTX's score
The score starts at 50, then each signal below adds or subtracts points. No black box.
| Signal | Type | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Above 200-day MA Price is above its 200-day average — long-term trend is up. | technical | +8 |
| Above 50-day MA Trading above the 50-day average — medium-term momentum is positive. | technical | +5 |
| Death cross 50-day average is below the 200-day (death cross). | technical | -4 |
| RSI neutral RSI is 56 — neither overbought nor oversold. | technical | +0.62 |
| MACD positive MACD is above its signal line — momentum is building. | technical | +5 |
| Macro regime base rate In 38 past periods like today (Rising inflation + Steady Fed), this stock was higher 90d later 79% of the time (median +4.3%). Historically favorable. | macro | +5.79 |
Macro regime base rate
Today's regime: Rising inflation + Steady Fed
In 38 past periods that looked like today, RTX was higher 90 days later 79% of the time (median move 4.3%). Confidence: high.
The read
RTX: Defense Steady-Eddie Leans Bullish, But the Moving Averages Haven't Fully Aligned
Bull case. Price at $187.33 sits above both the 50-day ($179.37) and 200-day ($182.18) moving averages, confirming long-term uptrend intact. MACD histogram is positive (+0.49) with momentum building, while RSI at 56 leaves plenty of room before overbought territory. The composite score of 70.4 lands firmly bullish, and the macro backdrop is the real kicker: in 38 analogous Rising-Inflation/Steady-Fed periods, RTX was higher 90 days later 79% of the time with a median gain of +4.3% — high-confidence base rate that historically favors the bulls.
Bear case. The trend is labeled mixed for good reason. A death cross is in play — the 50-day average sits below the 200-day, a lingering bearish signature that says the medium-term hasn't fully healed. Resistance at $194.17 caps near-term upside, and a rejection there could send price back toward the $172.55 support, roughly 8% lower. RSI at 56 is neutral, not strong, so there's no overwhelming buying thrust here.
What would change my mind. A decisive close back below the 50-day MA at $179.37 would crack the medium-term momentum story, and a break under $172.55 support would invalidate the bullish thesis entirely and reactivate the death cross as a genuine warning. Conversely, a clean breakout above $194.17 confirms the bull case is winning.
RTX — frequently asked
Is RTX a buy according to Tallyread?
Tallyread does not give buy or sell recommendations. It shows a transparent 70/100 read for RTX (RTX), conditioned on today's macro regime, with every scoring input itemized so you can judge for yourself. This is not financial advice.
How is RTX's Tallyread score calculated?
The 70/100 score starts at 50, then adds and subtracts named technical and macro signals — each shown with its point value and a one-line reason in the "Show Your Work" table on this page. Nothing is hidden in a black box.
How does today's Fed-and-inflation regime affect RTX?
In 38 past periods whose macro regime matched today's (Rising inflation + Steady Fed), RTX was higher 90 days later 79% of the time, with a median move of 4.3%. Confidence: high.
Want a fresh read on RTX with the live chart and macro tape?
Run a live RTX read →Last analyzed 2026-06-30 · Data source: tiingo. See the public scorecard and methodology.
This is a historical and technical read for informational and educational purposes only — not financial advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell RTX. Markets are uncertain; do your own research.