Nike (NKE) — The Transparent Read
26/100Bearish$41.48 · downtrend
This is a downtrend with the weight of evidence on the bears' side. Every major signal — death cross, sub-50-day, sub-200-day, negative MACD, bearish composite — points the same direction, and the macro base rate offers no comfort. The lone thread of hope is the $40.00 support, which is being tested but not yet broken. My lean is bearish to neutral: respect the trend, watch $40 like a hawk. A bounce here is a counter-trend trade, not a turnaround. The path of least resistance remains lower until price proves otherwise.
NKE key levels
Show Your Work — every point in NKE's score
The score starts at 50, then each signal below adds or subtracts points. No black box.
| Signal | Type | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Below 200-day MA Price is below its 200-day average — long-term trend is down. | technical | -8 |
| Below 50-day MA Trading below the 50-day average — medium-term momentum is weak. | technical | -5 |
| Death cross 50-day average is below the 200-day (death cross). | technical | -4 |
| RSI neutral RSI is 40 — neither overbought nor oversold. | technical | -1.01 |
| MACD negative MACD is below its signal line — momentum is fading. | technical | -5 |
| Macro regime base rate In 38 past periods like today (Rising inflation + Steady Fed), this stock was higher 90d later 45% of the time (median -3.4%). Historically unfavorable. | macro | -1.05 |
Macro regime base rate
Today's regime: Rising inflation + Steady Fed
In 38 past periods that looked like today, NKE was higher 90 days later 45% of the time (median move -3.4%). Confidence: high.
The read
NKE: Bruised and Below the Line — Bears Still Hold the Court
Bull case. Price is holding just above the $40.00 support level, and RSI at 40 is far from oversold capitulation — there's room before sellers exhaust. A defended $40 floor could set up a relief bounce toward the 50-day MA at $43.82. The MACD histogram at -0.39 is shallow, hinting that downside momentum may be losing steam rather than accelerating.
Bear case. The technical picture is decisively negative: price ($41.48) sits below both the 50-day ($43.82) and 200-day ($56.94) moving averages, and a death cross is in effect — the long-term trend is broken. MACD is below its signal line with momentum fading, and the composite score of 25.9/100 is firmly bearish. The macro regime (rising inflation, steady Fed) is historically unfavorable — only 45% of analogous periods finished higher 90 days later, with a median return of -3.4%.
What would change my mind. A decisive daily close back above the 50-day MA at $43.82 — ideally followed by a push through resistance at $46.31 — would signal medium-term momentum is repairing and flip the read. Conversely, a clean break and close below $40.00 support confirms the bear thesis and opens the door to further downside.
NKE — frequently asked
Is NKE a buy according to Tallyread?
Tallyread does not give buy or sell recommendations. It shows a transparent 26/100 read for Nike (NKE), conditioned on today's macro regime, with every scoring input itemized so you can judge for yourself. This is not financial advice.
How is NKE's Tallyread score calculated?
The 26/100 score starts at 50, then adds and subtracts named technical and macro signals — each shown with its point value and a one-line reason in the "Show Your Work" table on this page. Nothing is hidden in a black box.
How does today's Fed-and-inflation regime affect NKE?
In 38 past periods whose macro regime matched today's (Rising inflation + Steady Fed), NKE was higher 90 days later 45% of the time, with a median move of -3.4%. Confidence: high.
Want a fresh read on NKE with the live chart and macro tape?
Run a live NKE read →Last analyzed 2026-06-30 · Data source: tiingo. See the public scorecard and methodology.
This is a historical and technical read for informational and educational purposes only — not financial advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell NKE. Markets are uncertain; do your own research.