Netflix (NFLX) — The Transparent Read

26/100Bearish$73.78 · downtrend

This is a downtrend, full stop. The composite score of 26.1 and the stacked negatives — below both major MAs, a death cross, and fading MACD momentum — leave little room for optimism. My lean is bearish-to-neutral. The one saving grace is that RSI at 31 and price perched on $70.86 support suggest a near-term oversold bounce is possible, and the macro base rate is a coin flip rather than a clear headwind. But a bounce isn't a trend change. I'd treat strength toward the 50-day MA as suspect until the structure repairs itself.

NFLX key levels

Last price

$73.78

Trend

downtrend

50-day avg

$85.35

200-day avg

$96.78

Support

$70.86

Resistance

$87.22

RSI

Confidence

high

Show Your Work — every point in NFLX's score

The score starts at 50, then each signal below adds or subtracts points. No black box.

Signal	Type	Points
Below 200-day MA Price is below its 200-day average — long-term trend is down.	technical	-8
Below 50-day MA Trading below the 50-day average — medium-term momentum is weak.	technical	-5
Death cross 50-day average is below the 200-day (death cross).	technical	-4
RSI neutral RSI is 31 — neither overbought nor oversold.	technical	-1.85
MACD negative MACD is below its signal line — momentum is fading.	technical	-5
Macro regime base rate In 38 past periods like today (Rising inflation + Steady Fed), this stock was higher 90d later 50% of the time (median -0.2%). Historically favorable.	macro	+0

Macro regime base rate

Today's regime: Rising inflation + Steady Fed

In 38 past periods that looked like today, NFLX was higher 90 days later 50% of the time (median move -0.3%). Confidence: high.

The read

NFLX Stuck in a Downtrend — Bears Hold the Wheel Until Support Cracks or $87 Breaks

Bull case. There's a glimmer here for patient buyers. RSI at 31 is approaching oversold territory, hinting that selling pressure may be getting exhausted. Price at $73.78 is hovering just above firm support at $70.86 — a level that could spark a bounce. And the macro backdrop isn't a death sentence: in 38 analogous Rising Inflation + Steady Fed periods, NFLX was higher 90 days later 50% of the time. A reclaim of the 50-day MA at $85.35 would flip the medium-term narrative.

Bear case. The technical picture is ugly and the bears know it. Price sits below both the 50-day ($85.35) and 200-day ($96.78) moving averages, and the death cross — 50-day below 200-day — confirms the long-term trend is broken. MACD is negative with a histogram of -0.36, signaling momentum is still fading, not turning. The composite score of 26.1/100 screams bearish. Until proven otherwise, every rally is a sell.

What would change my mind. A decisive close back above the 50-day MA at $85.35 — ideally with MACD flipping positive — would tell me momentum is genuinely turning and the downtrend is losing grip. Conversely, a clean break below support at $70.86 confirms the bears and opens the door to further downside.

NFLX — frequently asked

Is NFLX a buy according to Tallyread?

Tallyread does not give buy or sell recommendations. It shows a transparent 26/100 read for Netflix (NFLX), conditioned on today's macro regime, with every scoring input itemized so you can judge for yourself. This is not financial advice.

How is NFLX's Tallyread score calculated?

The 26/100 score starts at 50, then adds and subtracts named technical and macro signals — each shown with its point value and a one-line reason in the "Show Your Work" table on this page. Nothing is hidden in a black box.

How does today's Fed-and-inflation regime affect NFLX?

In 38 past periods whose macro regime matched today's (Rising inflation + Steady Fed), NFLX was higher 90 days later 50% of the time, with a median move of -0.3%. Confidence: high.

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Last analyzed 2026-06-30 · Data source: tiingo. See the public scorecard and methodology.