Lockheed Martin (LMT) — The Transparent Read
35/100Cautiously Bearish$502.07 · downtrend
This is a tug-of-war between a broken technical structure and a favorable macro regime. The charts say downtrend — death cross, sub-200-day, negative MACD — and I won't pretend otherwise; the cautiously bearish 34.9 composite is earned. But price is parked right on support at $490 with neutral RSI, and the 68% historical edge in this inflation-plus-steady-Fed regime is too consistent to ignore. My lean: cautiously constructive from these levels IF $490 holds. I want to see the bounce confirm before believing the macro stat over the trend. Below support, the bears win clean.
LMT key levels
Show Your Work — every point in LMT's score
The score starts at 50, then each signal below adds or subtracts points. No black box.
| Signal | Type | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Below 200-day MA Price is below its 200-day average — long-term trend is down. | technical | -8 |
| Below 50-day MA Trading below the 50-day average — medium-term momentum is weak. | technical | -5 |
| Death cross 50-day average is below the 200-day (death cross). | technical | -4 |
| RSI neutral RSI is 42 — neither overbought nor oversold. | technical | -0.76 |
| MACD negative MACD is below its signal line — momentum is fading. | technical | -5 |
| Near support Holding near support around $490.05. | technical | +4 |
| Macro regime base rate In 38 past periods like today (Rising inflation + Steady Fed), this stock was higher 90d later 68% of the time (median +4.9%). Historically favorable. | macro | +3.68 |
Macro regime base rate
Today's regime: Rising inflation + Steady Fed
In 38 past periods that looked like today, LMT was higher 90 days later 68% of the time (median move 4.9%). Confidence: high.
The read
LMT Grinds Lower, But Support at $490 Is Where the Battle Lines Are Drawn
Bull case. Despite the downtrend, the setup isn't all gloom. Price is holding near support at $490.05, which has historically been a battleground worth respecting. RSI at 42 is neutral — not oversold, but not signaling panic either, leaving room for a bounce. The biggest tailwind is the macro backdrop: in 38 analogous periods of rising inflation with a steady Fed, LMT was higher 90 days later 68% of the time, with a median gain of +4.9% and high confidence. That's a meaningful historical edge that could reassert itself if support holds.
Bear case. The trend tape is ugly. LMT trades below both its 50-day ($521.65) and 200-day ($533.89) moving averages, and the death cross — the 50-day below the 200-day — confirms the long-term trend is broken. MACD histogram is negative at -1.95, telling us momentum is still fading rather than turning. The composite score of 34.9/100 lands firmly in cautiously bearish territory. Until price reclaims those moving averages, every rally is a candidate to be sold, and a break of $490.05 opens the door to deeper losses.
What would change my mind. A decisive break and close below support at $490.05 invalidates the constructive thesis and likely accelerates the downtrend. On the flip side, a reclaim of the 50-day MA at $521.65 with the MACD histogram flipping positive would shift this from cautiously bearish toward a genuine trend repair.
LMT — frequently asked
Is LMT a buy according to Tallyread?
Tallyread does not give buy or sell recommendations. It shows a transparent 35/100 read for Lockheed Martin (LMT), conditioned on today's macro regime, with every scoring input itemized so you can judge for yourself. This is not financial advice.
How is LMT's Tallyread score calculated?
The 35/100 score starts at 50, then adds and subtracts named technical and macro signals — each shown with its point value and a one-line reason in the "Show Your Work" table on this page. Nothing is hidden in a black box.
How does today's Fed-and-inflation regime affect LMT?
In 38 past periods whose macro regime matched today's (Rising inflation + Steady Fed), LMT was higher 90 days later 68% of the time, with a median move of 4.9%. Confidence: high.
Want a fresh read on LMT with the live chart and macro tape?
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This is a historical and technical read for informational and educational purposes only — not financial advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell LMT. Markets are uncertain; do your own research.