FedEx (FDX) — The Transparent Read
68/100Cautiously Bullish$313.13 · uptrend
This is a classic 'strong trend, tired momentum' setup. The long-term and medium-term trend evidence is overwhelmingly positive, and the macro regime tilts the odds in the bulls' favor. But the negative MACD tells me the immediate path may involve some consolidation or a retest of support before the next leg up. My lean is cautiously bullish over a 90-day horizon — consistent with the 61% historical hit rate — but I'd want to see momentum turn back up before getting aggressive. Buyers defending $306.05 keep the thesis intact; a clean break above $344.09 would confirm the next advance.
FDX key levels
Show Your Work — every point in FDX's score
The score starts at 50, then each signal below adds or subtracts points. No black box.
| Signal | Type | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Above 200-day MA Price is above its 200-day average — long-term trend is up. | technical | +8 |
| Above 50-day MA Trading above the 50-day average — medium-term momentum is positive. | technical | +5 |
| Golden cross 50-day average is above the 200-day (golden cross). | technical | +4 |
| RSI neutral RSI is 52 — neither overbought nor oversold. | technical | +0.18 |
| MACD negative MACD is below its signal line — momentum is fading. | technical | -5 |
| Near support Holding near support around $306.05. | technical | +4 |
| Macro regime base rate In 33 past periods like today (Falling inflation + Steady Fed), this stock was higher 90d later 61% of the time (median +1.8%). Historically favorable. | macro | +2.12 |
Macro regime base rate
Today's regime: Falling inflation + Steady Fed
In 33 past periods that looked like today, FDX was higher 90 days later 61% of the time (median move 1.8%). Confidence: high.
The read
FDX: Trend Says Up, Momentum Says Wait
Bull case. The structural picture for FDX is unambiguously bullish. Price at $313.13 sits well above both its 50-day ($282.75) and 200-day ($217.42) moving averages, with a confirmed golden cross underpinning the long-term uptrend. RSI at 52 is neutral — plenty of room to run before overbought conditions kick in. The stock is holding firmly near support at $306.05, and the macro backdrop (falling inflation, steady Fed) is historically favorable: in 33 analogous periods, FDX was higher 90 days later 61% of the time with a median gain of +1.8% (high confidence). The composite score of 68.3 lands squarely in cautiously bullish territory.
Bear case. The near-term momentum is fading, and that's the crack in the armor. The MACD histogram is negative at -4.20, with MACD below its signal line — a warning that the recent push higher is losing steam. RSI sitting at a middling 52 confirms there's no fresh buying pressure driving this. Price is leaning on support at $306.05 rather than breaking out toward resistance at $344.09, meaning the stock needs that floor to hold or the trend structure gets tested.
What would change my mind. A decisive close below support at $306.05 would invalidate the cautiously bullish thesis — that break would signal the medium-term uptrend is failing and shift the odds toward a deeper test of the 50-day MA at $282.75.
FDX — frequently asked
Is FDX a buy according to Tallyread?
Tallyread does not give buy or sell recommendations. It shows a transparent 68/100 read for FedEx (FDX), conditioned on today's macro regime, with every scoring input itemized so you can judge for yourself. This is not financial advice.
How is FDX's Tallyread score calculated?
The 68/100 score starts at 50, then adds and subtracts named technical and macro signals — each shown with its point value and a one-line reason in the "Show Your Work" table on this page. Nothing is hidden in a black box.
How does today's Fed-and-inflation regime affect FDX?
In 33 past periods whose macro regime matched today's (Falling inflation + Steady Fed), FDX was higher 90 days later 61% of the time, with a median move of 1.8%. Confidence: high.
Want a fresh read on FDX with the live chart and macro tape?
Run a live FDX read →Last analyzed 2026-07-01 · Data source: tiingo. See the public scorecard and methodology.
This is a historical and technical read for informational and educational purposes only — not financial advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell FDX. Markets are uncertain; do your own research.